Alone With My Thoughts

The CPI inflation gauge has been negative year over year for only 13 months since the year 2000. That is 13 times out of 300, so inflation is and continues to be a basic element of the US economy. The talk now is all about “affordability” as the weight of inflation continues to bear down on the middle and lower class. The problem is that we expect the government to have some magic cure to the problem. They try to divert our attention with names like the “Affordable Care Act”, the “Inflation Reduction Act”. Now this week, there is talk out of Washington about sending everyone $2000 as a kind of personal return on our new tariff policies. Or there is a suggestion of 50 year mortgages perhaps. We all need to say it out loud, more government spending does not cure inflation or created affordability, it is more likely to stoke the flames of inflation. Maybe we should use the Clinton playbook, ride a period of immense innovation (the internet) that stimulates the economy which leads to balanced budgets and low inflation. The AI buildout is upon us, let’s ride this time of incredible innovation like it was 1994.

There are two epic and related battles beginning to shape up as we go head first into the final quarter of 2025. First, the corporate bond market is on a tear, with record setting new issues at the most narrow credit spreads since 1998 according to the Wall Street Journal. This would make investors think that the economy is strong and the chance of default is low. On the other side, economists and politicians are clamoring for lower bond yields because the economy is weak based on much slower job and wage growth. This leads us to the other battle, significant slowing job growth representing a weak economy versus an AI driven new gold rush to higher productivity indicating a strong economy that just needs fewer jobs.  There it is, the yin versus the yang, which could ultimately work out to higher inflation, lower job growth, higher productivity, and lower interest rates and hopefully bullish stock prices.

A quick public service announcement, Wall Street can resemble a factory, churning out shiny new products as fast as retail investors can buy them. These products can carry higher fees, more complexity, and liquidity issues. The White House is now in the process of allowing private equity to be invested within 401k plans. Private equity can carry higher fees, be very complex, less transparent in pricing, and illiquid. 401k plans have been arguably quite successful, now managing almost $9 trillion dollars. They are typically low cost, very liquid, and offer different levels of complexity, all with price transparency. Squirrel! Squirrel! Buyers beware.

If March has lions and lambs, then April 2025 had its own bulls and bears. A falling market picked up momentum on April 2^nd, and hit new recent lows the following week, only to now have rallied about 14% from the bottom, with the Nasdaq actually positive for the month. Investors were again rewarded (or not punished) for maintaining a long-term view and for being diversified. In the coming months, Wall Street will obviously be paying close attention to tariff news. With oil prices in the mid to high $50’s per barrel, the ten-year bond at 4.1%, and the looming possibility of permanent tax cuts, what would happen if a trade deal is announced with someone like India? Stay tuned…