Confidence Sells
There is an adage that says, “confidence sells” and Wall Street is confidently in a sales mode right now. For the record, the S&P 500 closed out the fourth quarter of 2024 with a 20%+ gain, which marks the second straight year of twenty percent gains. This is interesting because it has only happened two other times in the last hundred or so years, 1935 and 1936 (followed by a 39% drop in 1937) and then in the years 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 (1999 was very close to being up 20%). Not to be outdone, the tech heavy Nasdaq, led by the magnificent 7, rallied about 30%. In addition, Gold and Bitcoin both made new record highs, small cap stocks bounced, and Apple moved towards a $4 trillion dollar valuation. With 2024 now in the books then, what does the future hold for investors in the year or years to come? If we look back at the previously mentioned period of the mid-nineties, those incredible gains, year after year, were due in large part to the world transitioning to the internet and a new technology driven society. The question then becomes, with AI obviously the headline in 2024, is this new technology the next big thing. We believe there is more to this story, both good and bad, which could potentially stimulate the economy and financial markets as we head into 2025. We also have a Fed that has dropped interest rates by a percentage point which could be supportive to stocks and bonds. Finally, on the political front there is a sense that we could have less corporate regulation and possibly lower taxes that could help companies meet the consensus of 15% earnings growth. On the negative side, stock valuations by several standards are looking rich. The threat of a trade war with China, et al could also weigh on the markets, as would a wide variety of other political and economic events. We continue to review and position portfolios to benefit when the markets do well and to withstand those periods of time when the market either pauses to refresh or as can often happen when confidence is high, suddenly and violently revert to the mean. As for confidence, we truly appreciate your confidence in our firm, and we want to wish everyone a healthy and prosperous 2025 and beyond.
What the Bond Market is Telling Us
A solid third quarter for investors, particularly when it comes to equities, was punctuated by a decrease in interest rates by the Fed, with a big one-half percentage point drop. As the economy continues to expand at a surprising rate, along with near record low unemployment, it feels like an elusive “soft landing” may have been achieved. Prominent in this thesis is that inflation has finally been tamed and all systems are green lit to go. But what is the bond market telling us? Clinton strategist James Carville once said “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Well, the bond market is speaking…since reaching a near-term low in September of about 3.5%, the ten-year interest rate has gone up to over 4.36% on the eve of the 2024 election. As a public service reminder, the Fed controls short term rates while the bond market controls the rates that matter with respect to mortgages and long-term borrowings. Note, the prime rate is 8% prior to the next FOMC meeting on 11-7-24. One of the key issues, which has been barely spoken about by either political party this election season, is the significant amount of debt in the US and around the world. We can avoid talking about it, kind of like some of your family members, but it is still out there. As a nation, we are currently carrying about $68 trillion in debt, with about $36 trillion of it issued by the US government. If we suppose that at an average of 6%, the debt coverage then translates to about $4 trillion a year. If we follow the bouncing ball, the debt coverage is about 14% of our annual GDP. Ultimately, Inflation may be stickier than expected and our portfolios should reflect this. Looking ahead and through the fourth quarter, we do expect some volatility that could be muted by solid quarterly earnings and a dovish Fed. The largest tech firms continue to be firmly committed to expanding their AI offerings and could provide equity support. As for interest rates, we are positioning portfolios to benefit from current yields while simultaneously trying to manage the risk of interest rates dancing to their own tune. We look forward to speaking with you as we head towards the end of 2024 and beyond and we thank you for your continued confidence in our firm.
Alone with My Thoughts – 11/01/24
Famed hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, remarked recently on CNBC that with respect to the upcoming election, all roads point to inflation. In other words, neither of the candidates is known to be or is even suggesting to be an inflation fighter. Whether it be the usual suspects of pre-voting giveaways like no taxes on tips, no college loans, money for start-ups, or deductions for car loan interest, they all are inflationary. Throw in some tariffs and infrastructure spending under the guise of the Inflation Reduction Act and you get the picture. Paul Tudor Jones’ main concern is that prices will seemingly go higher as our national debt, and more importantly, our national debt interest costs go up exponentially, which will keep rates higher and costs higher, etc. The ten year is ending the week at about 4.24%, while gold is setting new records. We are positioning for a potential soft landing with the possibility of some Halloween surprises over in the bond patch.
Alone with My Thoughts – 8/20/24
Time in the Market Iconic Wall Street observer Jeremy Siegel reminds us in a recent Barron’s article that stock investing is the most volatile asset in the short-term and the most stable asset in the long-term. Most volatile in the short-term and most stable in the long-term. Traders are chasing the next great earnings opportunity or corporate development. Investors, in contrast, are more concerned with compounding earnings, dividends, and share buybacks because that is where wealth is created. This message is so simple, yet so many fail to understand it.
Sticking The Landing
As the Olympics play out in Paris this summer, we can witness extremely gifted athletes excel in a countless number of events. As usual, special attention is given to the high-flying gymnasts that can stick incredible landings. On Wall Street, the most important landing of late is whether the economy can have the elusive “soft-landing” after a stretch of Fed tightening and higher interest rates. With the economy only adding 114,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate moving up to 4.3% (after bottoming at 3.4% last year), there has been some recent concern for the economy, reflected by a relatively short, but dramatic, sell-off to begin August. We believe that the soft-landing scenario is still intact as the economy continues to prove to be quite resilient. First, profit reporting from the previous quarter has been strong, with earnings up about 10.9% from a year ago. This gain in earnings appears to be driven by margin expansion as opposed to revenue growth. Also, according to JPMorgan, 8 out of 11 sectors are expected to contribute to this earnings growth, led once again by AI related capex. Finally, the Fed has indicated that they are ready to lower interest rates beginning in September, which has historically given support to equity prices. On a cautionary note, inflation looks to be rather persistent with several initiatives that could promote higher costs. The deglobalization of industry, bringing manufacturing back home, typically done using aggressive tariffs, may be inflationary. Transforming our energy and infrastructure could also be seen as adding costs for the nation. Inflation is an insidious tax on the middle and lower classes, and there has been some cutting back from consumers. Recent earnings from McDonalds, Starbucks, and Chipotle for example, indicate that people are budgeting more and that may eventually affect the overall economy. Seven months into the year financial markets continue to stride higher led by the Nasdaq (+16%) and the S&P 500 (+15%). In general, fixed income is positive for the year now, if just barely. As we deal with many geopolitical headlines in the weeks and months to come, it is as important as ever that investors establish a game plan to not only meet and exceed personal goals, but also to manage risk and expectations that can keep the plan on track. “I don’t really think about the degree of difficulty or the possibility of making a mistake. I just try to relax and let my preparation and training take over.” — Simone Biles
Alone with My Thoughts – 6/25/24
We Need a Diet Shot for Governments Last Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that France was facing disciplinary action from the EU for running a high budget deficit. Not only are the French dealing with this deficit, they are also above the EU requirement of no more than 60% of debt above GDP. In the US interestingly, our debt is about 100% of GDP and just this past week our deficit is now projected to be about $2 trillion for the year. Good news, we are not a member of the EU, bad news, our interest on our debt is now almost $1 trillion dollars a year, or about the same as our entire defense budget (or for those keeping score, about 30% of our tax revenues so far this year). Mon Dieu!
Alone with My Thoughts – 5/14/24
The stock market can be so emotive. From the elation of riding the wave of the “next biggest thing” like AI to the despair of outdated technologies (think Kodak, VCR’s, and Blockbuster). As for amazement, consider that Sam Bankman-Fried is sitting in jail for the next 25 years as a result of his crypto financial fraud schemes. It has now just been reported by both the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s that his schemes owe investors $11 billion dollars and that after liquidation, the fund has about $15 billion dollars to pay off the aforementioned creditors. So…he gets 25 years and investors “gain” $4 billion on his strategy. Rarely, if ever in history, has financial fraud resulted in a windfall for investors. The feeling of perplexion comes to mind…
Should I Roth Or Should I Go Now?
Should I Roth or should I go now? Wall Street is humming a variation to the iconic Clash hit from 1981, as the potential arises that tax law changes made in 2017 get set to expire at the end of 2025. The basic idea is this, should someone consider paying taxes now by converting qualified retirement assets into a Roth IRA, to save a significant sum of taxes over a long period of time. Advisors are having this conversation in offices across the US. In fact, Barron’s recently noted that Fidelity has seen a 44% increase in conversions year over year at just the end of the first quarter. We believe that the pace of conversions will continue to expand, and the following example could help explain why… For many retirees, the time frame between full retirement age (around 67 years old) until Required Distribution Age of 73, are years with potentially less tax burdens. At 73, the qualified and required distributions can loom large tax wise. That leaves the potential for converting assets before age 73 at least worth considering for many. Combining that with the new rule with respect to non-spouse beneficiary distribution requirements, there is an estate planning angle to this as well. It may not be a “train in vain” to explore the tax implications of converting assets to a Roth. As for markets during the first third of the year, Wall Street continues to ride the AI wave and generally strong economic data. After a blazing start in the first quarter, stocks have come back to earth recently, in part because of stubborn and sticky inflation. The inflation data is holding the Fed back from lowering rates as Wall Street has reversed course from a predicted seven rate cuts in 2024, to now possibly one or two later in the year. The yield on the two-year just traded above 5% again. We continue to favor companies that are profitable, carry low debt, and that have pricing power. These are the names that could potentially do well during an inflationary period. We are still recognizing good diversification opportunities in international markets. Finally, we have begun to move out the yield curve as rates have inched higher, but the threat of a massive rise in rates may be less probable. As for the upcoming election (and other geo-political events), the markets seem to be unfazed for now, drawing on experience that investing based on headlines can be an expensive political science course. We look forward to connecting with everyone personally throughout the year and we appreciate your confidence in our firm.
New Year, New Weather
Every New Year begins with resolutions, future predictions and forecasts, and a clean slate. As investors, we try to be aware of the daily gyrations of both the economy and the markets, as well as long-term trends. By comparison, a good meteorologist reports on the weather today and for the next five days. A great meteorologist is looking not only at what is currently happening, but also studying major potential trends, like climate change, and making decisions based on a long-term view. To be a great investor then, we believe that you need to combine the fundamental analysis of all current and historical data, with the curiosity and experience to make enduring, multi-year decisions, with a grounded anticipation of the future. Thanks to our friends at Wealthmanagement.com, we need to be cautious with what the financial media offers in the way of predictions. Based on a study by CXO Advisory Group, the so-called gurus were no better than a flip of the coin, they were worse. From 2005 to 2012, they reviewed 6,584 forecasts from 68 “experts” only to find that on average they were accurate less than 47% of the time. Only 5 of the 68 had an accuracy score above 60%. And no, Jim Cramer was not one of the five (he came in at 47%). Our key takeaways are these…First, any market related predictions for the short term are purely for entertainment purposes only. Secondly, we need to make calculated forecasts for our long-term investments, but we also need to build portfolios using concepts like diversity, income investments, risk management, etc. so that we can survive the short-term periods of market volatility that the breathless “talking heads” cannot seemingly get right. With that said, here is some of our insight as we head directly into 2024. Stocks managed to rebound quite nicely in 2023 and in mid-January 2024, the S&P 500 was able to regain all-time highs from 2 years ago. Even with relatively high US stock valuations, we believe that the economy is strong, strong enough to have a soft landing from recent rate hikes, and that the path of least resistance for equities may be higher for now. During the last quarter of 2023, the 10-year bond (risk free rate of return) had a dramatic fall in rate from a bit over 5% to 3.8%. As we closed out the year, the Fed appeared to be done lifting rates for the time being. While there will most likely be some rate cut by the Fed in 2024, we think just the “idea” of Fed cuts, will give some ballast to both bonds and stocks this year. As for volatility, world events and the upcoming election will most likely cause some market reactions. We again remind investors that Wall Street sometimes reacts counter to what the endless headlines might suggest. We look forward to working with everyone again this year and for many years to come. Our goal is to become a trusted financial planning and asset management partner that not only guides you, but also helps to manage against those things we cannot control. “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get” Mark Twain. Thank you for your continued confidence in our firm.
Alone with My Thoughts – 2/15/24
Super Planning The recently played Super Bowl will go down as one of the most exciting finishes ever, as the KC Chiefs pulled out an overtime victory. Andy Reid, the future Hall of Fame coach of the Chiefs, did what he does best, and what the greatest coaches do best, and that was to make adjustments at halftime. Many people will consider getting a financial plan, to help map out their financial future. Instead of a financial plan, we try to look at it as financial planning, meaning that life will throw us many changes, curve balls, and situations that may require halftime adjustments. Speaking of Super Bowls, “Just because you made a good plan, doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen.” Taylor Swift