Alone with My Thoughts – 4/24/26
Scrapping off an inch of snow on April 19th can be disturbing with winter dragging into spring. But for stock market investors, there is an adage that winters are often short while summers can last some time. Similar to last year’s “tariff tantrum” which dramatically dragged stocks down almost 20% but then rebounded to finish the year at record highs, our recent market “weather event” has now been reversed and in the matter of 12 days, we are now back to record highs for the S&P. This is a nod to building resilient portfolios and to remaining committed to your long-term plan, using the inevitable dust-ups to position for the summer months ahead.
Alone with My Thoughts – 4/6/26
While Wall Street enjoyed the long Easter weekend, the Fed job report was released on Good Friday. In a surprise, non-farm payrolls increased 178,000, well above the expected gain of 65,000, which could be seen as a positive for the economy. Unfortunately, the job gains were again concentrated in certain areas, notably the health care sector, led by 31,000 returning workers after the Kaiser Pemanente strike was resolved. According to economic sources, the health care sector has accounted for approximately 70% of all jobs created since 2022. The baby boomer generation has noticeably impacted society and the economy throughout their passage of time and now with the boomers aging (in eight years there could be more 85 year olds than those 18 and less) it comes as no real surprise that healthcare, particularly targeting senior citizens, is in growth mode and has been since outpacing both manufacturing and retail in the early 2000’s. Two take aways, healthcare is strong and vibrant with respect to career opportunities and secondly, the jobs numbers might not be as good as the talking heads may have you believe.
Alone with My Thoughts – 1/21/26
Hats off to James “Jim” Moylan, the Ford engineer that created the “Moylan Arrow” or the arrow on most car dashboards that indicates which side of the car to pull up to at the gas pump. Unfortunately, Jim passed away in December, but his simple, novel, and practical idea in 1989 became a mainstay on cars around the world. It also points to the fact that how innovation, no matter how large (AI) or small (Moylan Arrow), can impact an industry or an entire economy. Further, with respect to direction, sometimes it helps to have someone help us navigate and simplify the financial world of Roths IRA’s, 403B’s, 401K’s, HSA’s et al.
Alone with My Thoughts – 12/19/25
Going Out On A High As we head into the year-end of 2025, we are fortunate to have hit all-time highs in the major stock averages this year. Speaking of all time highs, gold and silver are also in rarefied air and major international markets like the UK and Germany have hit the same highs in 2025. Not to be outdone, Keith Richards hit his new high of 82 years of age yesterday. Talk about a high within a high. Have a wonderful holiday season!
Alone with My Thoughts – 11/18/25
The CPI inflation gauge has been negative year over year for only 13 months since the year 2000. That is 13 times out of 300, so inflation is and continues to be a basic element of the US economy. The talk now is all about “affordability” as the weight of inflation continues to bear down on the middle and lower class. The problem is that we expect the government to have some magic cure to the problem. They try to divert our attention with names like the “Affordable Care Act”, the “Inflation Reduction Act”. Now this week, there is talk out of Washington about sending everyone $2000 as a kind of personal return on our new tariff policies. Or there is a suggestion of 50 year mortgages perhaps. We all need to say it out loud, more government spending does not cure inflation or created affordability, it is more likely to stoke the flames of inflation. Maybe we should use the Clinton playbook, ride a period of immense innovation (the internet) that stimulates the economy which leads to balanced budgets and low inflation. The AI buildout is upon us, let’s ride this time of incredible innovation like it was 1994.
Alone with My Thoughts – 10/10/25
There are two epic and related battles beginning to shape up as we go head first into the final quarter of 2025. First, the corporate bond market is on a tear, with record setting new issues at the most narrow credit spreads since 1998 according to the Wall Street Journal. This would make investors think that the economy is strong and the chance of default is low. On the other side, economists and politicians are clamoring for lower bond yields because the economy is weak based on much slower job and wage growth. This leads us to the other battle, significant slowing job growth representing a weak economy versus an AI driven new gold rush to higher productivity indicating a strong economy that just needs fewer jobs. There it is, the yin versus the yang, which could ultimately work out to higher inflation, lower job growth, higher productivity, and lower interest rates and hopefully bullish stock prices.
Alone with My Thoughts – 7/22/25
A quick public service announcement, Wall Street can resemble a factory, churning out shiny new products as fast as retail investors can buy them. These products can carry higher fees, more complexity, and liquidity issues. The White House is now in the process of allowing private equity to be invested within 401k plans. Private equity can carry higher fees, be very complex, less transparent in pricing, and illiquid. 401k plans have been arguably quite successful, now managing almost $9 trillion dollars. They are typically low cost, very liquid, and offer different levels of complexity, all with price transparency. Squirrel! Squirrel! Buyers beware.
Alone with My Thoughts – 5/2/25
If March has lions and lambs, then April 2025 had its own bulls and bears. A falling market picked up momentum on April 2nd, and hit new recent lows the following week, only to now have rallied about 14% from the bottom, with the Nasdaq actually positive for the month. Investors were again rewarded (or not punished) for maintaining a long-term view and for being diversified. In the coming months, Wall Street will obviously be paying close attention to tariff news. With oil prices in the mid to high $50’s per barrel, the ten-year bond at 4.1%, and the looming possibility of permanent tax cuts, what would happen if a trade deal is announced with someone like India? Stay tuned…
Alone with My Thoughts – 3/20/25
The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by volatility and turbulence as Wall Street comes to grips with wide ranging new government mandates. From tariffs and cost cutting, to interest rates and inflation, there is plenty of headline risk to go around. Take a moment, go to a Zen like place, and remember that the markets have been on a tear, what with two years in a row of 20% up moves for the S&P 500 and high valuations. Interest rate cuts have been paused and March can be a historically rough month for stocks all the while we haven’t had a 10% drop since the summer of 2023. The turbulence should be kind of expected then and a well-diversified portfolio with some exposure to fixed income, is probably faring better than the media talking heads would have you believe.
Alone with My Thoughts – 2/06/25
According to a recent research report from JPMorgan, the largest tech companies, aptly named the “magnificent seven” now make up 32% of the S&P 500 and another 19% of the index are technology companies in general. That means that more than 50% of the market is tech related and very much in a space race to capture investor’s hearts with AI. It seems like quite a concentration in a passive index investment. With recent volatility that can at times accentuate this concentration, 2025 may be the year for active asset management and possibly tip toeing away from being “all in”.