There are two epic and related battles beginning to shape up as we go head first into the final quarter of 2025. First, the corporate bond market is on a tear, with record setting new issues at the most narrow credit spreads since 1998 according to the Wall Street Journal. This would make investors think that the economy is strong and the chance of default is low. On the other side, economists and politicians are clamoring for lower bond yields because the economy is weak based on much slower job and wage growth. This leads us to the other battle, significant slowing job growth representing a weak economy versus an AI driven new gold rush to higher productivity indicating a strong economy that just needs fewer jobs. There it is, the yin versus the yang, which could ultimately work out to higher inflation, lower job growth, higher productivity, and lower interest rates and hopefully bullish stock prices.
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Alone with My Thoughts – 10/10/25
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